City Profile: Kirkuk

The population of Iraq is estimated at 27 million, although 2.5 million have fled the country to escape sectarian violence, and another 2.5 million have been displaced internally. Best estimates for ethnic groups are that 75 to 80 percent are Arab and 15 to 20 percent are Kurds. Significant minority ethnic groups together constitute about 5 percent of the population. These include Turkmen, Assyrians, and Chaldeans. Best estimates of religious affiliation show that 97 percent of the population is Muslim. Of these 60 to 65 percent is Shia and 32 to 37 percent is Sunni. Christians make up 3 percent.

Kurdistan has been an autonomous region of Iraq since 1991, when the international community applied a no-fly zone after the first Gulf war.

Kirkuk lies about 150 miles north of Baghdad. The origin of the name Kirkuk is Assyrian. Kirkuk is derivative of the Assyrian name (Karkha D-Bet Slokh), which means the city that is besieged by a wall. The present city of Kirkuk stands on the site of the ancient Assyrian city called Arrapha, which existed in the 5th Millennium BC. The city reached great prominence in the l1th and 10th centuries BC under the Assyrians’ rule. The oldest part of the city is clustered around a citadel built on an ancient mount. Kirkuk contains oilfields accounting for 13 percent of Iraq’s proven reserves. The region around Kirkuk accounts for as much as 40 percent of Iraq's oil production and 70 percent of its natural-gas production, factors that contribute to making “ownership” of Kirkuk a matter of contention.

Kirkuk is the most ethnically diverse city in Iraq. Between the 1970s and 2003, the regime of Saddam Hussein uprooted more than 100,000 Kurds (some estimates say 200,000) in his efforts to “Arabize” the city. Kurds stake a historical claim dating back to the late nineteenth century, when, they assert, Kurds made up three-quarters of the population of Kirkuk province. A 1957 census showed, however, that Turkmen predominated, making up 37 percent of the population, while Kurds made up 33 percent, Arabs 22 percent, and Christians one percent inside the city of Kirkuk. That census revealed that in the Kirkuk province, the population proportions were as follows: Kurds at 48 percent; Turkmen at 21 percent; Arabs at 28 percent and Christians at less than1 percent. It should be noted that some sources suggest that the 1957 census showed that Kurds were the majority.

Statistics in Iraq and the usages to which they are put are highly controversial and different censuses have generated different results and were highly politicized. Sunni Arabs, meanwhile, cite a 1997 census that showed Arabs—both Shiite and Sunni—made up 58 percent of the city's population. (Some experts say the data is faulty because under the "Ethnic Correction Policy”, many Kurds and Turkmen unwillingly changed their Iraqi National Identification Card, i.e., to be regarded as Arabs, so they would not risk being expelled from their houses to other provinces.)

Since the toppling of the regime in 2003, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Kurds and Turkmen returned to Kirkuk to reclaim their lost properties or reside in camps on the eastern fringe of the city. Some experts say their motivation was to rebalance the city's population in preparation for the December 2007 referendum. Most experts say Kurds now make up a clear majority and retain control over most of the city's important political posts, because of a ruling allowing around 70,000 displaced Kurds to vote. The Turkmen, once the foundation of the city’s urban elite, have virtually disappeared as a result of continuous ethnic violence. Perhaps up to 350,000 Kurds have returned to Kirkuk. Although there are no definitive figures available, it is generally accepted that Kurds are now in the majority.

Article #140 of the Iraq Constitution stipulated that a province-wide referendum to determine the status of Kirkuk would take place before 31 December 2007. However, citing security concerns, the government failed to conduct the referendum. Turkmen in particular are opposed to a Kirkuk ruled by Kurds, because they see it as the first step to incorporate Kirkuk into Kurdistan. Turkmen complain of being scapegoated by Kurds, subject to attack and discrimination. Other ethnic groups harbor similar complaints in the face of aggressive moves on the part of the Kurds who have taken majority control of Kirkuk province, allowing them to place Kurdish loyalists in key positions in the civil service, take control of Kirkuk’s intelligence services and policemen; while Kurdish Peshmerga patrol the streets.

Turkey fears that a Kurdistan with Kirkuk as its capital and sitting atop such oil abundance would constitute a move by Kurdistan toward creating an independent Kurdish state. Ankara's primary concern is that such a move by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to seek greater autonomy could spill over into its own borders and spark unrest among Turkey's own 12 million Kurds. Iraq's Sunni and Shiite nationalists, fearing an eventual split-up of Iraq, say Kirkuk is home to Arabs as well as Kurds and thus should not be incorporated into Iraq's autonomous region of Kurdistan. They accuse Kurds of forcibly driving Sunni and Shiite Arabs out of their homes, of overstating their claim to Kirkuk, as well as "reverse ethnic cleansing" by displacing some of the city's Arab residents. But to most Kurds, Kirkuk is their “Jerusalem,” linked by centuries of history and culture.

Although provincial elections were held throughout Iraq on 31 January 2009, no elections were held in Kirkuk because of disagreement regarding the size of the city’s population. A UN draft proposal (as part of the Provincial Election Law a special article related to Kirkuk was issued: Article 23) stipulates a temporary power-sharing agreement or joint administration on an equally proportionate basis: 32 percent representation each for Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens and 4 percent for minorities. This proposal has been adopted by the Kirkuk Provincial Council (KPC).

Kirkuk is Iraq’s tinderbox of conflict, with the potential of all-out war between the Peshmerga (the army of Kurdistan) and Iraqi security forces as well as internecine ethno/sectarian violence among Turkmen, Kurds, and Shia Arabs. Failure on how to deal with Kirkuk resulted in delaying ratification of the Electoral Powers Act. National elections have to take place in Iraq before the end of 2009. They will be preceded by a national census, which will include Kirkuk, at which point many of the contentious issues will come to a head.